The Houston Rockets did all they could to move on from the dysfunction of the Dwight Howard-James Harden marriage before the trade deadline this year. The main reason general manager Daryl Morey couldn’t find any takers for an eight-time All-Star and three-time Defensive Player of the Year was Howard’s insistence on opting out of his four-year deal and testing the free-agent waters this offseason.
Howard’s relationship with Harden appears to be damaged beyond repair, making it inevitable the just-turned-30-year-old will leave Houston this summer. Could he be on his way up I-45 north to Dallas?
In the summer of 2015, the Mavericks did all they could to sign a dominant defensive center known for his highlight dunks, but who also comes with free throw shooting problems. After missing out on DeAndre Jordan last summer, would Mark Cuban and Co. want to try again and take their chances on signing D12?
Back in 2013, when Howard was on the market last, Dallas was one of five teams to make a pitch for bringing in the then-27-year-old superstar. It turned out to be a long shot the center would sign to play alongside a 35-year-old Nowitzki, as he was eyeing the possibilities of pairing up with budding young superstar James Harden. Ultimately, the youth of Houston seemed to trump the experience and winning culture in Dallas.
Now three years later, with Dirk looking at retirement sooner rather than later, Dallas wants to give its veteran one more chance at a title. Even though they’ve been spurned in the past, the possibility is out there they could make one more run at bringing Howard to North Texas.
But should they?
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In his first 10 years in the league, Howard missed only 36 games. However in the last two seasons, his health has rapidly gone downhill. In 2014-15, the center lost 41 games due to knee and back injuries. This season he’s missed 11 games with even more injury issues. Anyone thinking of signing Howard would be entirely justified in worrying about how broken Superman is, and even if he manages to stay healthy, Howard has undoubtedly lost some of the athleticism that set his game apart.
Far from the days of the explosive offensive centerpiece he was in Orlando, Howard can still be a complementary inside scorer, as he’s averaged over 15 points on 60 percent shooting the last two seasons. At times this year he’s shown he still has a little power in him, as he’s dropped 28 or more points in a game three times this season, including a 36-point, 26-rebound performance against the Los Angeles Clippers last month. He’s also shooting 61.3 percent from the field, which would be a career high.
Even while his offensive production has taken a step back, Howard is as dominating a rebounder as he ever was. A five-time rebounding champ, the center is grabbing 11.9 rebounds per game this year, just a notch below his 12.7 career rebounding average. He’s posted 10-plus rebounds in 29 of his 45 games this year, too.
Even with his respectable performance this season, Howard’s personality and demeanor may turn off a few teams. If he does leave Houston, Howard will be three-for-three in leaving a franchise on a sour note. Becoming known as a headache and a disliked teammate in all of his stops may turn away some potential suitors this offseason.
Factoring in his declining play, injury history and despised personality, Howard may find it hard to command the $30M-plus max contract he’s looking for this summer. But despite all the negatives, Howard would fit remarkably well into the Mavericks’ lineup, financially and physically, next season.
At the end of the 2014-15 season, Nowitzki vowed to return to Dallas the next two seasons and fulfill his contract responsibilities. If he’s true to his word, Dallas will want to send its franchise player out on a winning note. To do so, adding Howard makes sense to round out a competitive roster. Financially it could work, depending on Chandler Parsons’s plans.
Assuming Deron Williams and Parsons opt out of their contracts, Mavericks will be left with only $40.8M in guaranteed salary left on their roster. With the projected cap reaching $92M, Dallas will have the room to re-sign Parsons, bring in Howard and find a reasonable option at point guard (re-signing Williams, or bringing in Brandon Jennings or Jeremy Lin come to mind).
Those signings would leave Dallas with a strong lineup of Howard, Nowitzki, Parsons, a fully recovered Wesley Matthews and Williams/Lin/Jennings/J.J. Barea. With the prevalence of outside shooting on the team, Howard would be the ideal piece in the middle for a well-balanced Dallas offense.
Howard’s pick-and-roll ability and familiarity with playing alongside Parsons would be a substantial upgrade over Zaza Pachulia at the 5. He would also match if not exceed the rebounding and defensive post presence Pachulia and his endless energy have provided this season, which is an important factor as Nowitzki and Parsons aren’t the stoutest defenders.
The addition of Howard makes great sense for Dallas this offseason. He’d be the star Cuban has long desired to bring to Dallas to pair with Nowitzki. He’d fit well offensively in coach Rick Carlisle’s system, and his familiarity with Parsons would help integrate the mercurial Howard into the locker room. Nowitzki’s reputation as one of the best teammates you could ask for would go a long way to making Howard feel comfortable in Dallas and hopefully bring out the best in him.
Cuban isn’t afraid to spend money to build a winner. With Nowitzki possibly calling it a career at the end of 2017, the Dallas franchise owes it to him to do all it can to build a winner, even if it means overpaying and taking a risk on Howard.
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