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Wesley Matthews’ free agency was completely overshadowed by DeAndre Jordan’s mess, but it was fascinating in its own right. A player coming off arguably the best season of his career, which was cut short by one of the most devastating injuries in sports, was looking for his last big contract. The team that signed him would be taking a huge gamble, but the potential payoff was too great to pass up.
No one could’ve blamed the Dallas Mavericks, which actually upped Matthews’ contract to near the maximum allowable after being spurned by Jordan, for having buyer’s remorse early in the season. The former Trail Blazer was shooting poorly and not affecting the game on the defensive end the way he had in Portland.
Fortunately for them, lately Matthews has looked more and more like the core player they thought they were getting.
Since the All-Star break the Mavericks have gone 4-2 and are still hanging on to the sixth seed in the West. In that stretch, Matthews has averaged 16 points on 47 percent shooting (40 percent from beyond the arc), up from 12 points on 38 percent shooting before the break. In six games he only failed to reach double digits in scoring in one, and Dallas has outscored opponents by over 18 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the court, per NBA.com.
Obviously drawing any definitive conclusions from a handful of games is less than ideal. Yet the fact that the numbers Matthews is putting up now are closer to the ones he typically averaged before his injury suggests that he might be turning a corner from a physical perspective. He returned to action earlier than anticipated and understandably struggled, then improved for a while before slowing down. Now that he’s both in rhythm and had some rest, he’s looking like his old self.
“Any new player to a system is going to find his way better and better as the season progresses,” Rick Carlisle told Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram. “I think it’s a combination of those things. Wes, he’s getting more and more rhythm, more and more condition, and more and more in the final stages of his recovery.”
Carlisle is clearly right about the comfort level he’s developed with his teammates and the system. Matthews has been taking advantage of lighter players in the post, but the biggest difference from earlier in the year has been his ability to read the floor beautifully and move without the rock to get open as the plays develop:
Matthews is starting to heat up, but both he and the Mavericks still have ways to go on the other end. With the exception of the Thunder, the Mavericks haven’t faced offensive powerhouses since the All-Star break, yet have still allowed too many points to be considered a good defensive team. Surrounded by teammates who struggle on that end and with Dallas playing small a lot, Matthews’ lack of an impact is magnified.
The offensive renaissance, then, shouldn’t be equated to a complete return to form for Matthews. Yet it could still have a huge impact on what the Mavericks’ front office decides to do going forward.
Chandler Parsons will likely enter free agency next summer, looking for a maximum salary that would start at around $21 million dollars. While he’s dealt with injury issues in his time in Dallas, the Mavericks should probably lock him down. His up-and-down relationship with Rick Carlisle and the fact that the team won’t likely contend without adding talent, however, could give both sides plenty of pause. For the Mavericks, the decision might come down to the talent already on the roster at the wing positions.
To be clear, Parsons and Matthews are very different players. The former has more off-the-bounce creativity and can slide up to power forward when called upon. Matthews, meanwhile, can keep the ball moving, post up and hit three-pointers at a higher rate, so the front office could focus on getting a versatile forward who can either handle the ball or move up a spot to replace the potentially expensive Parsons.
Harrison Barnes, Luol Deng and Marvin Williams could appear as suitable options to take Parsons’ place while the team spends elsewhere, but only if Matthews keeps being a dependable outside shooter and a matchup nightmare thanks to his post up skills. If this uptick in production isn’t sustainable and he becomes a sunk cost at his near maximum salary, then the Mavericks can’t afford to lose the perimeter offensive talent Parsons provides.
Dallas needs both its starting wings to produce this season to get to the playoffs and have a shot at an upset in the first round. Going forward there might only be room for one of them, considering how expensive the duo could be and how far away from contention the Mavericks are.
If that’s the case, Matthews playing well for the rest of the season could make a tough decision much easier for Dallas. If he’s truly back, then potentially losing Parsons to upgrade the roster elsewhere won’t be as damaging as it could’ve been.
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